Poll shows Cox with big lead 11 days out from election

Utah Republican Gov. Spencer Cox leads his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Brian King, by 32 percentage points in the latest Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted less than a month before the general election.
A majority of respondents said if the election were held today they would vote for Cox. In a full-ballot scenario, Cox received 51%, King received 19%, Independent American candidate Tommy Williams received 4%, Libertarian Party candidate Robert Latham received 3%, and unaffiliated candidate Tom Tomeny received 2%.
Over one-fifth of respondents, 22%, said they were unsure or didn’t know which of the five candidates on the ballot they would vote for. The poll did not include an option to write in the name of another candidate.
Following a bruising Republican primary, which Cox won by 37,500 votes, failed GOP candidate Phil Lyman launched a write-in campaign for governor. Despite division within some factions of the Republican Party, the poll reveals the kind of candidate most Republican voters are looking for, according to Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute.
“Spencer Cox is approaching the final stretch of this election cycle with steady support, despite criticisms from the Lyman campaign,” Perry said. “His 63% victory in the 2020 general election indicates a strong base, and recent polling suggests that support remains. This suggests Utah voters may be prioritizing issues over campaign rhetoric. As the election approaches, Cox’s focus will likely be on maintaining a clear message and reminding voters of his prior work and continued goals.”
When undecided voters were asked to choose between the five candidates on the ballot, Cox’s lead increased by 10 percentage points to 61%. King’s total increased to 21%. Third-party candidates each experienced a small boost, but none exceeded 10%.
The poll was conducted by HarrisX between Oct. 15-19 among 813 registered Utah voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
The Cox campaign said the results of the poll affirm that Utahns approve of the governor’s work in office.
“Gov. Cox continues to deliver for voters by signing the largest tax cut in Utah history and supporting major teacher pay raises that now rank Utah teachers top 10 in the nation for starting salaries. He will continue to work hard to earn the support of voters,” campaign spokesperson Matt Lusty said.
The poll found that Cox enjoys a 56% approval rating of his job as governor, with 18% of respondents saying they strongly approve, 38% saying they somewhat approve, 18% saying they somewhat disapprove and 14% saying they strongly disapprove, for a total of one-third of Utahns that disapprove of Cox’s actions in office.
Cox’s approval rating climbs to 64% among self-identified Republicans and remains high, at 61%, among self-identified conservatives. Nearly half of Democratic respondents, 49%, and independent respondents, 47%, said they approve of Cox’s tenure.
The King campaign said the results of the poll may reflect Cox’s high name recognition, but they ignore “the reality on the ground.”
“Utahns are fed up with a governor who serves as a lapdog for an out-of-touch, politically monopolized legislature, all while ignoring the issues impacting everyday Utahns,” campaign manager Gabi Finlayson said. “Brian King is building a coalition of voters who are tired of being ignored and ready to make their voices heard. We’re confident that, on election night, Utah will see the power of pragmatic, values-driven leadership.”
While the poll shows Cox with widespread approval, including among Democrats, the partisan breakdown reveals more polarized support. If the election were held today, 27% of Democrats said they would vote for Cox, while 56% said they would vote for King and 11% said they were unsure.
Breaking the results down by party identification shows 68% of Republican respondents currently plan on voting for Cox, 9% plan to vote for King and 17% said they were unsure of who they would choose among the names listed on the ballot. It is unclear how many of these respondents plan to write in Phil Lyman, who lost to Cox in the GOP primary after winning the state convention among party delegates.
If Cox succeeds by a large margin in November, it could contribute to a continued “strong moderate Republican presence within the party,” Perry said.
“The critiques from the Lyman campaign underscore the importance of unity within the GOP, highlighting that moderate voices may be key to securing electoral success,” Perry said.
A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted in August found Cox with a 40-percentage-point lead in a head-to-head with King.
Polling in early October from Noble Predictive Insights found Cox leading among likely voters with 49% of support to King’s 23% and Lyman’s 5%, with nearly 20% of voters undecided.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5. Utah voters should have received their mail-in ballots last week. You can find Deseret News’ political coverage here.